A Binomial Distribution Table Falsifies Creation by Chance
A binomial distribution table FALSIFIES chance causation, creation by chance, or chance causality of any kind, except for the very simplest of sequences.
We can calculate the probability of chance events.
https://origin-science.org/Binomial-Distribution-Table
The probability of tossing two heads in a row is 0.25, according to a binomial distribution table. That’s doable, and realistic.
The probability of tossing three heads in a row is 0.125. That too is realistically possible.
The probability of tossing four heads in a row is 0.0625. The probability of five heads in a row is 0.0312. The probability of tossing six heads in a row is 0.0156. The probability of tossing seven heads in a row is 0.0078. That’s getting down there. That’s less than one percent, and it gets much worse from there. You can toss seven fair coins a hundred times, and it’s possible that you will NEVER get seven heads to come up. Chance just isn’t that reliable! If you need seven heads to win the jackpot, chances are good that you will run out of time or money before you achieve your goal.
According to a binomial distribution table, it is impossible to get fifteen heads in a row or fifteen tails in a row from a fair coin by chance alone. The probability of doing so has effectively dropped to zero.
And, that’s with a binomial distribution – heads or tails – two possibilities for each trial or event. When it comes to proteins and amino acids, there are 21 different amino acids that are used to make proteins, which means that the sequence that can be produced by chance alone drops significantly lower than a sequence fifteen units long, as I will demonstrate later on in this essay.
Remember, according to a binomial distribution table, it is statistically impossible to get fifteen heads in a row with a fair coin, which also means that it is statistically and realistically impossible to get fifteen correct amino acids in a row, when trying to build a protein by chance alone.
When dealing with probability, when do you declare it a lost cause? When do you cash out and cut your losses? When do you declare a “low probability” to be synonymous with ZERO, IMPOSSIBILITY, or NO CHANCE?
On the typical binomial distribution table, they cut it off at 1 chance in 10,000. Beyond that, they call it impossible. Beyond a probability of 0.0001, they declare the chance or probability to be 0.0000, or they declare the event to be impossible, because it is.
Nobody has time enough to waste to make something happen by chance alone!
I’m a statistician and mathematician among other things. I have the formula for computing the probabilities – which are found on a binomial distribution table – to great precision on my graphing calculator.
The probability of getting 15 heads in a row with a fair coin is:
0.00003051757813
That’s three chances in 100,000.
That means that if you toss 15 fair coins one hundred thousand times in a row, the chance or the probability that you will get ALL heads is three times, or three trials, or three tries in 100,000.
Time starts to be a factor here.
Assuming that you have 15 fair coins to start with, and assuming you can toss those fair coins and count the result once every minute, it will take you 100,000 minutes or 70 days of tossing those coins continuously in order to end up with fifteen heads, three separate times on average. Are you really going to sit there and toss 15 coins for 70 days around the clock on the hope of getting 15 heads in a row, two or three times during that 70-day period of time? That’s why tossing 15 heads in a row with a fair coin is both statistically and realistically impossible. Lack of time prevents us from doing so. It’s still theoretically possible on paper, but it completely impossible in reality.
Now swap those coins for amino acids instead.
According to a binomial distribution table and a Sign Test based upon the Correct or Incorrect amino acid coming up by chance alone, the probability of getting 15 correct amino acids in a row is also:
0.00003051757813
There’s NO chance that it will ever happen.
The Materialists, Naturalists, Darwinists, Nihilists, and Atheists will complain and say, “But there’s still a chance!”
NO, THERE ISN’T.
Are you really going to sit there and keep stirring the pot or keep tossing those amino acids for 70 days just so that you can get fifteen of them to accidentally line up in the correct sequence? You see, when it comes to CHANCE, you actually have to have a real person there who is willing to keep tossing the coins, or to keep tossing the amino acids, or keep stirring the amino acids until the correct sequence comes up by chance alone. Without a person there to toss the coins or to stir the amino acids, NOTHING is ever going to happen. This is Logic 101, and everyone completely overlooks it.
There really is nothing like chance causation or creation by chance, because you still need a person, psyche, or intelligence there to keep tossing the coins or to keep stirring the amino acids until “chance” produces the correct results. You also NEED a person there to recognize that fifteen heads in a row has been achieved or to recognize that the correct amino acid sequence has been achieved. And, with the amino acid “protein” that is produced by “chance”, you also NEED a person, psyche, intelligence, or quantum consciousness there to make sure that that new “protein” is protected and used, or that “protein” which was produced by chance alone will be of no value to anyone.
There is no such thing as pure chance or chance causation!
“Chance” of any kind needs an intelligent set-up or an intelligent assist. In the case of coins, “chance” needs an intelligent person, psyche, or quantum consciousness to make the coins, toss the coins, count the coins, and recognize when the fifteen coins have produced fifteen heads. “Chance” doesn’t do anything and can’t do anything without an intelligent person or psyche there to toss the coins or to line up the amino acids into sequences.
You have to have a person who is willing to find and/or make the coins and the amino acids in the first place. Without any coins or amino acids, there’s nothing to toss; and therefore, there is NOTHING for chance to do! Then that same person has to be dumb enough and have time enough to keep tossing the fifteen coins or the fifteen amino acids for 70 days hoping that they will fall out just right. Finally, that same Person, Psyche, or Intelligence has to be there to recognize that the correct amino acid sequence has been achieved by chance alone. Without that intelligent person there to recognize that the correct amino acid sequence has been achieved, they will just keep tossing the coins or stirring the amino acids for all eternity with NO RESULTS. You NEED Someone Psyche or Someone Intelligent there to recognize and use that correct amino acid sequence when CHANCE finally produces it.
You see, there really is NO such thing as pure chance or chance causation, which is why they say that the Null Hypothesis in a science experiment was by definition produced by chance alone. A Null Hypothesis means that the independent variable had NO effect on the dependent variable, which means that there is NO causal relationship between the two.
Chance cannot produce causal relationships!
Chance cannot do causation!
Chance has NO mechanism in place for recognizing when it has succeeded.
Once we have established a causal relationship between the independent variable and the dependent variable, we are no longer looking at chance but are looking at causation instead.
Chance and causation are mutually exclusive!
Even games of chance require an intelligent assist from some type of person, psyche, quantum consciousness, or life force.
When it comes to protein synthesis and the origin of life, we are dealing with 21 amino acids. God would have to make all of the amino acids in the first place and then put them into close proximity to each other, for there to be a chance that CHANCE can combine them into a protein that is 15 amino acids long. No God-given amino acids, then NO proteins. It’s that simple.
But, let’s say that we have a God-given tub full of the correct 21 amino acids, God is still going to have to keep stirring that pot or that tub constantly, until the correct 15 amino acids miraculously line up in the correct sequence. If nobody stirs the pot, then nothing is ever going to happen! Amino acids are 3D and not 2D like coins. It’s going to take a lot of work, stirring, and luck to get fifteen 3D amino acids to line up in the correct sequence by chance alone. There has to be Someone to stir the pot so that chance can do its job! There has to be someone to toss the coins, so that chance can do its job. If there is NO psyche, or intelligence, or quantum consciousness there to toss the coins or to stir the pot, nothing is ever going to happen. It’s that simple!
Even then, there is still NO CHANCE that it will ever happen. There’s NO chance that we will ever get 15 amino acids in the correct sequence by chance alone.
Why?
Well you see, by definition, chance or chemical evolution is blind. It has NO way of knowing that it has finally achieved the correct sequence of 15 amino acids. Chance has NO use for a correct sequence of fifteen amino acids. Chance wouldn’t know what to do with it. Chance wouldn’t even know that it has it. “Chance” or “chemical evolution” will just keep stirring the pot or the tub until that correct sequence of 15 amino acids is destroyed. There’s nothing there in that tub to recognize that it has a correct sequence of fifteen amino acids. Recognition requires psyche, or intelligence, or quantum consciousness. A sequence of fifteen correct amino acids is absolutely worthless without some Intelligent Psyche there who KNOWS how and where to use that protein or sequence that was allegedly produced by chance alone.
Let’s say that chance miraculously produces a gene. That gene is absolutely worthless without some Intelligent Psyche who KNOWS how, where, and why to use that gene. The same reality applies to proteins.
Creation by chance alone is impossible. Chance of any kind always requires an intelligent assist of some kind to take advantage of it.
Remember, there’s nothing there in the tub to protect that correct sequence of amino acids, once it is assembled by chance alone. Soon, the sun, wind, water, or chance will destroy that correct sequence of 15 amino acids, and the whole process will have to start all over again. Nothing will ever be accomplished by chance alone. There is no such thing as Chance Causation. There is no such thing as Creation by Chance. Someone Intelligent has to be there to recognize that the correct amino acid sequence has been achieved; and then, that same Someone has to protect and use that correct amino acid sequence, or nothing will ever come of it. Chance cannot do design and creation by chance alone. It’s that simple.
A binomial distribution with a sign test is a very rough and crude estimate in comparison to the true probability of getting fifteen correct amino acids into the right sequence by chance alone. The true probability of getting fifteen amino acids in the correct order by chance alone is much lower than what we got from the binomial distribution table and sign test, as I will demonstrate in the next section.
For now, all you really need to know is that it is statistically and realistically IMPOSSIBLE to get fifteen heads in a row, with a fair coin. It’s theoretically possible on paper, but in the real world, nobody is going to toss and count fifteen fair coins for a solid month around the clock on the off chance that he or she will get fifteen heads somewhere along the way. In real world practice, it’s never going to happen.
The same can be said for fifteen amino acids. Nobody is going to keep sequencing fifteen amino acids randomly and checking to see if the sequence is right, on the off chance that he or she will end up with the correct sequence somewhere along the way. And, without that intelligent person, psyche, life force, or quantum consciousness there to toss and count the coins or the amino acids in the first place, NOTHING will ever happen for all eternity, because someone intelligent has to be there to toss the coins and count the number of heads for “chance” to do its job to begin with. Someone Psyche or Someone Intelligent has to be there to recognize the correct amino acid sequence for what it is and take advantage of it, once chance has finally produced it; otherwise, nothing will ever come of it.
Chance Cannot Do Causation!
Chance and causation are mutually exclusive.
This is the fundamental axiom of Science, Statistics, the Scientific Methods, and Science Experimentation. Chance cannot do causation!
Furthermore, we are dealing with 21 amino acids here as well as proteins, and NOT coins. Amino acids are more complex than coins. Amino acids and proteins are more like 21-sided dice than coins. Amino acids and proteins are 3D. The chances of success go down drastically when we start dealing with 3D objects instead of 2D coins.
Let’s say that we can get God to give us a tub full of the correct amino acids, and nothing else but the correct amino acids in that tub; and, let’s say that you can convince God to keep that tub in existence and keep stirring the contents of that tub for all eternity; and, let’s say that God has time to keep stirring that tub for all eternity so that CHANCE can do its work in a timely fashion – how long is it going to take on average for CHANCE to produce a correct amino acid sequence 15 amino acids long, if CHANCE is putting 15 amino acids together every minute?
This is a legitimate statistics problem, and it does have a real answer that can be found. We can calculate the probability of chance events.
There are 21 different amino acids that are used to make proteins, and we are looking for a correct sequence that is in fact 15 amino acids long – 15 trials or 15 events. The Multiplication Rule in Probability applies here. We are looking at 15 separate events combined into one result. The answer is (1/21) multiplied by itself fifteen times – one time for each trial, or event, or amino acid in the sequence.
The true probability of getting 15 correct amino acids in a row by chance alone is:
(1/21)15
This is equal to: 1.46794769 e -20
YIKES!
That’s one solid chance in 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 attempts or trials, with fifteen amino acids being lined up and checked for correctness in each attempt, trial, or event.
That’s NEVER going to happen!
Look what happens when we switch from fifteen coins to fifteen 21-sided dice instead!
We definitely entered into the realm of impossibility!
We start with the estimated 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 minutes that it will take on average for “chance” to find or produce the correct amino acid sequence that is fifteen amino acids long, by chance alone, if CHANCE is successfully lining up 15 amino acids every minute. We have to start with some sort of given, or there is nothing for chance to do.
Let’s start with a God-given ocean full of the correct 21 amino acids. And, let’s convince God to keep stirring this ocean for all eternity so that chance can do its job. Producing the correct amino acid sequence by chance alone will NEVER happen unless God keeps stirring the pot. Let’s say that chance can miraculously sequence 15 amino acids randomly every minute given this ocean full of the correct amino acids. We start with the estimated 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 minutes that it will take for chance to do its job. Then we divide that huge number by 60 minutes, 24 hours, and 365 days in order to find the number of years that God will have to stir the contents of that pot or tub so that CHANCE can produce a “protein” that is 15 amino acids long by chance alone.
Assuming that God can miraculously keep getting 15 amino acids to line up into a sequence every minute to produce a single trial or event every minute, it will take God 190,285,875,190,000 YEARS on average, of stirring that same ocean full of the correct amino acids, in order to get the correct amino acid sequence fifteen amino acids long that we are looking for – one time. Furthermore, God is going to have to be on hand the whole time to recognize and use the correct amino acid sequence when it is finally achieved by chance alone. If God isn’t there to recognize and use that correct amino acid sequence when CHANCE finally produces it, then nothing will come of it.
That’s 190 trillion years on average of stirring the pot, for CHANCE to produce a correct or functional protein that is fifteen amino acids long by chance alone. The scientists estimate that our physical universe is only 13.8 billion years old. Is God really going to be dumb enough to stir a pot or a tub full of the correct amino acids for 190 trillion years on the off chance that He will get a correct sequence of fifteen amino acids by chance alone? Would you be willing to do that? Would you be able to do that? Of course not! So, why believe that CHANCE can do it at will? It’s superstition to believe that CHANCE can design and create things at will.
And, what did we get from all of this hypothetical stirring?
We got a “protein” that was 15 amino acids long. We got nothing! There is NO protein that is 15 amino acids long! Proteins are much longer than that. 190 trillion years of stirring the pot, and we still have nothing to show for it.
Are you starting to get a sense for why Creation by Chance or Causation by Chance is NOTHING but superstition, and fiction, and wishful thinking?
Creation by Chance, Causation by Chance, Chance Causality, and Wishful Thinking are logic fallacies. These are just a few of the dozens of different logic fallacies upon which the Theory of Evolution and the Second Law of Thermodynamics are based. They are both Creation by Chance, which means that they are both automatically FALSE. Chance cannot do causation! Chance is precisely the thing that we are trying to identify and eliminate from Science by running science experiments in the first place! Creation by Chance is nothing but science fiction. Creation by Chance is magic at best and a deceptive lie at worst.
I got the following off the internet from Uncle Google.
Thyroid releasing hormone or TRH should be the smallest protein in the human body, with 234 amino acids. (> 100 amino acids is a protein.) The smallest polypeptide in the human body should be insulin, with 54 amino acids. (10-100 amino acids is a polypeptide.)
Let’s run with this for a minute and see what we get.
The probability of making insulin by chance alone is:
(1/21)54
This is equal to: 3.98252109 e -72
This can’t be done by chance alone, even with a God-given ocean full of the correct amino acids. Even with God constantly stirring the pot or tub or ocean, it would take trillions of trillions of trillions of years for such a thing to happen by chance alone. It’s just not going to happen. Our observable universe hasn’t been around long enough for this to happen by chance alone. Insulin was designed and made by God. Without God to design it, make it, fine-tune it, and field test it, insulin wouldn’t exist. Only God could recognize that He had actually created insulin and KNOW what it is good for and how to use it.
Technically, insulin isn’t a protein. It’s a polypeptide that is 54 amino acids long. From now on, whenever you think of insulin, remember that God designed and made the stuff in the first place. We KNOW for a fact that chance didn’t do the job, so that leaves God as the only other plausible candidate. Someone made the stuff, or it wouldn’t exist. Anything that is obviously made obviously has a Maker who made it. Insulin was obviously made. God made insulin; and, there’s no chance that I got that wrong.
Here we just falsified and rejected the Null Hypothesis (which is produced by chance alone) and accepted the Alternative Hypothesis (which is some type of causation by a causal agent). In this case, the Alternative Hypothesis is that God designed and created insulin, because chance could never have done the job. This is Science in action. This is a True Science Experiment.
The probability of making THR by chance alone is:
(1/21)234
When I put this into my graphing calculator, the answer was ZERO (0). Literally. The answer is ZERO. This is NEVER going to happen ever! This is beyond what a graphing calculator can handle. This is beyond what God could do by chance alone!
The probability of making THR by chance alone is ZERO. You can wait for all eternity, and it will NEVER happen, even with a God-given tub full of the correct amino acids or with an ocean full of the correct amino acids. It’s NEVER going to happen. Making THR by chance alone is impossible. It can’t happen by chance alone. It requires some kind of intelligent and deliberate intervention from God Himself.
Here we just falsified and rejected the Null Hypothesis (which is produced by chance alone) and accepted the Alternative Hypothesis (which is some type of causation by a causal agent). In this case, the Alternative Hypothesis is that God designed and created THR, because chance could never have done the job. This is Science in action. This is a True Science Experiment.
THR is the smallest protein in the human body. THR can never be made by chance alone. Every time you think of any protein, remember that God designed it, created it, made it, fine-tuned it, and field tested it. Anything that is obviously made obviously has a Maker who made it. Proteins were obviously made.
God made your proteins. Each protein is one of God’s Signatures. People are looking for the Signature of God in nature and science, and there it is in each one of your proteins.
Your genome is also God’s Signature. God had to make a matching gene for each of the proteins that He designed and made. God made your proteins and your genes. This is obviously true. According to the statistics and the probabilities, there is NO chance that I am wrong. God made your proteins and your genes.
This is one of the most convincing Scientific and Statistical Proofs of God’s Existence that I have encountered so far. I just used Statistics, Probability, and Science to prove that God exists; and, there’s NO chance that I’m wrong.
One day in 2015, I finally decided to go looking for Scientific Proof of God’s Existence, and eventually I found what I was looking for. Did I not? It’s obvious that I found Scientific Proof of God’s Existence; and, there’s NO chance that I got it wrong.
This is what I got from my statistics class.
It’s hiding in plain sight where nobody can see it, because nobody is looking for it and nobody wants it.
I bet you never got anything like this from your statistics class, and neither did your statistics professor, because you weren’t looking for it and didn’t want to find it in the first place. No seeking, then no finding.
Yet, it’s there and it’s obvious for anyone who is willing to look and see.
Creation by Chance, or Chance Causality, or Causation by Chance is IMPOSSIBLE.
That means that Materialism, Naturalism, Darwinism, Nihilism, Atheism, Creation Ex Nihilo, Creation by Random Disorder or Entropy, Creation by Death or Natural Selection, Abiogenesis, Spontaneous Generation, Chemical Evolution, Macro-Evolution, the Theory of Evolution, and the Second Law of Thermodynamics ARE IMPOSSIBLE because they are Creation by Chance, Chance Causality, Chance Causation, or caused by chance alone.
There’s the truth, whether you want it or not. Scientists lie, but the math doesn’t lie. I’m a scientist, mathematician, statistician, and logician. I believe the math, and I KNOW that it is true. We can calculate the probability of chance events; and, WE KNOW for a fact that chance cannot do causation. Chance and causation are mutually exclusive.
We can calculate the probability of chance events; and, CHANCE cannot produce fifteen heads in a row in a timely fashion with any kind of reliability, with a fair coin. If chance can’t do fifteen heads in a row in a timely fashion, then chance can NEVER produce a protein or a gene. There is the truth that everyone is searching for and that nobody is willing to accept. God made your proteins and your genes. Anything that is obviously made obviously has a Maker who made it. Genes, proteins, quantum fields, quantum waves, and physical atoms are obviously made. Therefore, it is obvious that they have a Maker who made them. The whole purpose of Science, Statistics, Science Experiments, and the Scientific Method is to find the TRUE CAUSE of each event that we experience or observe.
Chance is NEVER the True Cause of anything! Chance cannot do causation.
Now, the only thing left to do is to figure out which God is the God who made your proteins and your genes. I will leave that up to you to figure out for yourself, because it will be meaningless to you unless you discover it for yourself and want to become a part of it. I believe that answer can be found as well, if you are willing to look for it with an open mind and heart. It took a while, but I eventually found the answer to that question also, after I finally decided to go looking for it. The answer is there to be found, if one is willing to look for it and is able to accept it when he finds it. God has revealed Himself to us millions of times in thousands of different ways. It’s subtle most of the time, but it’s there to be found for those who are willing to look and see.
Mark My Words
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